Runner’s World has updated its Race Time Predictor to give you a more accurate assessment of your likely marathon finish time. What’s changed? For starters, when predicting a marathon time, you can now input the results of two races you recently completed, instead of just one. Because past finishing times are helpful in determining future finishing times, this info will produce a more accurate result. In addition, the new Predictor allows you to get a result adjusted for your average weekly training miles. If you ran 50 miles a week in training, you will get a faster predicted time than if you ran 20 miles a week. This is a breakthrough approach not available from other calculators.
The new Predictor is derived from data-driven research just published at Bio Med Central. The paper, titled “An empirical study of race times in recreational endurance runners,” is available as free, full text. Lead author Andrew Vickers, a sub-3-hour marathoner and cancer statistician at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, found that most pace calculators underestimate correct marathon finish times by 5 to 20 minutes. As a result, runners using the calculators to pace themselves might start too fast in their marathons—a sure recipe for failure.
Mike | 13th Jan 18
Due to injury at the time (as usual) I had to start running short races first, starting with 3k, then 5k, 10k, 15k, half marathon. I always ran the longer races better than McMillan race predictor based on the previous shorter distance race times. So being an engineer I just assumed a linear progression based on pace and that I would always outperform the McMillan predictor, This actually worked all the way up to my marathon time, and I think the main reason why is that I was confident that my prediction was more accurate. So mentally I was comfortable with my predicted pace and either achieved that pace or bettered it. Using this new Runners World race predictor based on my race times and km run per week at that time my marathon time should have been 3:11 but I ran just under 2:58. McMillan was far more accurate for me, I think around 3:01:30 based on my HM time. So my advice is to find race predictor calculations that are more accurate for you (we are all different) with a margin over or under extrapolated based on recent race times. The important thing is that the race times need to be recent, no point going back a few months, has to be no more than 2 or 3 weeks before, and then have confidence in your prediction to be able to achieve it on the day!
bigkevmatthews@gmail.com | 14th Jan 18
Thanks Mike, nice reply. Totally agree reference finding an indicator predictor that matches your times, which of course is where the difficulty arises. Running is so personal and individual a ‘one size fits all’ predictor is never going to accurately map individual performance but it can serve as a litmus test along the training journey.